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Spatial development: where to start?

May 8, 2020

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Madina Kabdualiyeva

Analyst

One of the main issues of spatial development is how to achieve the growth of some regions without "downtime" of others. The search for an answer to this question forms the agenda of many states: this leads to artificial support for certain sectors and forced relocation to less developed regions. However, research shows that we cannot expect a uniform economic growth, and attempts to artificially equalize it can only block the progress.

If we look at the night map of the world (Fig. 1), we can see clumps of light – global-level regions united into clusters. This is where talent is concentrated and innovation is born. The reason why Kazakhstan looks like a dark spot on this map is the lack of sufficient concentration of population and business that could increase the country's competitiveness. The concentration of population and business, in turn, means 2 things for regional policy.

1. Capability Analysis. The focus should be on regions whose potential to attract talent and develop businesses is already high. These can be either the agglomerations of Nur-Sultan and Almaty, as well as medium-sized cities located along the Northern border. The latter can form transnational clusters with Russian "million-plus cities" (for example, the chemical cluster of Germany and Switzerland).

Subsequently, they will ensure the "transfuse of development" to neighboring territories, pulling other regions after them (more about this can be read in our publication "Breaking out of the periphery").

2. Refusal of urbanization control. Forcing the return of the population to the countryside will not lead to its sudden development. It is natural for people to seek places with higher incomes and employment opportunities. Keeping the population in less prospective locations will lead to negative consequences of "transfusing": just as proximity to a prosperous region promises benefits and profit for its neighbors, so proximity to unfavorable regions leads to increased poverty and conflict. Moreover, it is necessary to provide the "ground" for talents: those who cannot find the opportunity to realize themselves, risk not to develop their potential.

This does not mean complete "abandonment" of rural regions. Following the principle of "people to infrastructure", the focus should be on creating "institutions that unite and infrastructure that connects", which will increase the mobility of personnel.

To assess the effectiveness of such an approach, it is enough to look at neighboring China. The main emphasis of spatial policy in recent decades has been on the development of the East Coast, and only after that  the transition to other regions had been made.   A good example is Shenzhen. Located close to Hong Kong and with access to ports, Shenzhen's potential was higher than that of any city in Northern China. In 1980, it was granted the status of a special economic zone, which increased the attractiveness for talent and gave rise to the development of a regional technology cluster: today, the headquarters of Huawei and DJI (the world's leading drone manufacturer) are located in Shenzhen. In 2017, the city upstaged Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou in attractiveness for living among Chinese. It has become a true magnet for young talents (about 90% of the population is of working age) and one of the fastest growing cities in the country.
Thus, the basic principle of regional development is simple: it is impossible to smooth out differences without priorities. If you want to get the necessary standard of living for the population, first let them live closer to the regions where they can get it.

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