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"ENTER the "Top 30" or "LIVE as in the "Top 30" ?

August 21, 2019

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Kuanysh Zhaikov


Partner

The only unshakeable goal of the state is to join the top 30 most developed countries by 2050. The idea is undoubtedly correct. But there are certain doubts.

1) How real is this? According to our estimates, not very.
2) How "saleable" is it for those who are "at the bottom"? Also not very, because there are few associations - to live like who? German? Pole? Japanese?
3) And finally, "Enter" or "Live like"? Let's dwell on that in detail.
"Enter" means a certain RATING, where in addition to your efforts, there are some 29 objects and their efforts. We will not make forecasts until 2050. Instead, we offer, in a half-joking form, to look at this "Top 30" - who are they?

So, for example, per capita income (GDP per capita, in nominal dollars). In 2018, Kazakhstan was ranked 70th. Who was in the " Top 30"? 16 European, 4 English-speaking, 4 Arab countries, 3 East Asian cities, Japan, Israel, and Puerto Rico.

What is confusing? A small city of Macau and the huge United States in one rating. The difference in territory is 300,000 times. Naturally, a separate successful CITY will be richer than VILLAGE even in the USA.

Now let's imagine scenario No.1: the World Bank considered that since the US is a Federation, let's consider separately each state.

What changes:
a) The "Top 30" will consist of 21 (!) states of the former USA.
b) The district of Columbia will lead the ranking, and New York, Massachusetts, Delaware and Connecticut will be in the "Top 10".
c) Kazakhstan will go down from 70th to 120th place.
Let's imagine scenario No.2: the World Bank considered that the EU is already de facto one country, so let's consider it together.

What changes:
a) The "Top 30" now almost includes Russia and Malaysia.
b) Kazakhstan proudly rises from 70th to 44th place.
Scenario No. 3: Kazakhstan realized that the history of the regions is different and decided to evaluate their place in the world ranking.

What changes:
a) Atyrau region is already in the "Top 30" (27th place).
b) Almaty in the "Top 50" (46th place).
c) Turkestan region will be in the 150th place, between Ghana and Honduras.
d) in general, 11 regions out of 17 will be below the 70th place.
This post is not about regional inequality or comparing cities and villages. It is about setting goals.

It will hurt if the government works hard all 30 years, and in 2049, large countries will decide to collapse into smaller states.

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