THE WAIT IS OVER: the effect of the growth of commodity exports began to spread to the rest of the economy

The GDP growth rate of Kazakhstan for 9 months of 2018 was 4.1%, which is identical to last year's indicator. The expected drop in rates did not occur, although they are still below the Government's target of 5%.

In contrast to the previous year, the main industry driver was trade – growth of 6.7% or a quarter of GDP growth. Mining and manufacturing grew by 5%, providing a third of the increase. The remaining industries grew less than 5%, with negative rates observed in housing and food, as well as water supply.

GDP by demand sources is more indicative. Exports remain the main driver – 8.9% of growth and 91% of economic growth. Consumption of the population increased immediately by 5.1%, reflecting the growth of real income. Investment growth (gross fixed capital formation) accelerated to 4.6%.
At the same time, the negative effect was caused by a reduction in inventories, an increase in imports (although to a lesser extent), and a decrease in consumption of public administration.  The latter resulted in a "loss" of 1.6 percentage points of potential GDP growth.

Within the framework of final consumption of the state, the reduction falls specifically on "individual goods and services" - by almost 30%. These include the social block: education, healthcare, social protection, culture and recreation. At the same time, the gross value added of these sectors of the economy increased by 2.5%.

Thus:
A) Exports remain the "engine" of the economy, while domestic demand is "untwisted" with a certain lag.
B) Budgetary policy of the government needs to be considered separately - at the moment it has become the main reason for the psychologically important 5% growth not to be achieved.